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AI in Trading

Label facts, claims, inference and unknown in a report

Use separate labels for what a source reports, what management says, what you calculate and what remains unknown. This small discipline prevents a plausible explanation from becoming an established cause as a report is summarized.

A worked evidence ledger

The following is our fictional DEMO-CONSUMER sample, in RMB millions with comparable nine-month flows.

LabelEntryEvidence or calculation
Reported factOperating cash flow 100→92Previous/current cash-flow section
Attributed claimSome customer payments shifted laterCurrent management section
CalculationCash flow growth -8%92/100−1
InferenceCollection timing may contributeProvisional; alternatives remain
UnknownAging and subsequent receiptsNot supplied

The inference must not be rewritten as “payment timing caused the entire decline.” The example has no aging schedule or customer-level collection evidence. An absent file is an information gap, not evidence that no problem exists.

Build source rows before conclusions

The SEC financial statement guide distinguishes a balance-sheet snapshot from period flows. In your evidence table, record the date or window accordingly. A September receivable balance and nine-month revenue can be compared analytically, but they are not the same type of measure.

Use columns for input filename, section/page, identity, dates, unit, original text/amount, label and calculation. Keep quotations brief and necessary. A translated summary should retain the original location. Two extracts from one report are still one underlying source, even if the AI found them in different places.

Prompt and review

Ask S01: “Create the evidence ledger first. Do not combine source statements with your interpretation. For every inference, give at least one missing check or alternative explanation. Write unknown when the material is absent.”

Then inspect whether every conclusion maps to a ledger row. Verify the arithmetic separately. A number can be copied correctly yet support the wrong conclusion because the period, scope or accounting definition differs.

Scope and failure

If extraction breaks table alignment, return to the original; do not fill columns by intuition. If only a summary is available, label the narrower evidence scope. The ledger improves traceability; it does not establish that source assertions are true, detect every fraud or remove the need for accounting judgment.

FAQ

Can two passages count as two sources?

They may corroborate internally, but remain one underlying report.

Does an unknown invalidate every conclusion?

No. Keep the conclusions that have evidence and state their limited scope.